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Q3 2020 Private Markets Outlook

US Macroeconomy

After the steepest economic decline in history during Q2, the US GDP skyrocketed by +33.1% during Q3-2020 which is in stark contrast to the -31.4% contraction in the previous quarter. Much of the country was shut down in the second quarter due to COVID-19 and that forced the economy to decline; most businesses reopened in Q3 with economic activity underpinned by increased consumer spending (+41%), gains in business (+83%) and residential (+59%) investment, and improved exports. Although headline GDP growth was very strong, the US economy is not on strong footing with unemployment still at 7.9% which is more than double the pre-pandemic unemployment rate. Some half of the 22 million jobs lost during March and April remain unfilled; 12.6 million people are still without work.

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The Data Center Deal: What the Numbers Actually say About the AI Infrastructure Boom

Data Centers are commanding some of the highest valuations in private markets. But the headline returns hide a much more divided market.

CEPRES DealForge shows recent Co-location/Data Center deals at 20.60x median EV/EBITDA, while the upper 50% generated a 44.16% median IRR versus 11.58% for the lower 50%.

Download the report to see what separates the strongest deals, where sector averages mask downside, and what is actually driving returns — before your next investment decision.

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Venture Capital: Is the AI Boom Repeating the Dot-Com Cycle

Thirty years of North American technology venture data reveal a $480.5bn gap between reported portfolio valuations and realized cash.

Download the report to compare the AI and dot-com cycles across capital flows, defaults, loss rates, IRR and DPI—and see what the data suggests about how much of today’s AI-driven value could ultimately convert into distributions.

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Price and Limits of the EV Trade: A Deal-Level View of Growth, Risk, and Returns in Automotive Components

DealForge analysis of 112 automotive-component investments, including 18 tire and rubber deals, reveals a 23.73% versus 0.41% median gross IRR split — while 85% of net equity value creation came from revenue growth and margin expansion.

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Private credit: Spotlight on deals — the winners and losers & bounce back from the crisis

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Navigating Private Debt: A Deep Dive into Historical Risk and Returns

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