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Q3 2020 Private Markets Outlook

US Macroeconomy

After the steepest economic decline in history during Q2, the US GDP skyrocketed by +33.1% during Q3-2020 which is in stark contrast to the -31.4% contraction in the previous quarter. Much of the country was shut down in the second quarter due to COVID-19 and that forced the economy to decline; most businesses reopened in Q3 with economic activity underpinned by increased consumer spending (+41%), gains in business (+83%) and residential (+59%) investment, and improved exports. Although headline GDP growth was very strong, the US economy is not on strong footing with unemployment still at 7.9% which is more than double the pre-pandemic unemployment rate. Some half of the 22 million jobs lost during March and April remain unfilled; 12.6 million people are still without work.

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Venture Capital: Is the AI Boom Repeating the Dot-Com Cycle

Thirty years of North American technology venture data reveal a $480.5bn gap between reported portfolio valuations and realized cash.

Download the report to compare the AI and dot-com cycles across capital flows, defaults, loss rates, IRR and DPI—and see what the data suggests about how much of today’s AI-driven value could ultimately convert into distributions.

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Price and Limits of the EV Trade: A Deal-Level View of Growth, Risk, and Returns in Automotive Components

DealForge analysis of 112 automotive-component investments, including 18 tire and rubber deals, reveals a 23.73% versus 0.41% median gross IRR split — while 85% of net equity value creation came from revenue growth and margin expansion.

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Private Debt: What the Transaction Data Suggests

Private debt has shifted from deployment to realization: distributions reached $490.2bn in 2024, cumulative net capital flows turned positive in 2025, and the 2021 and 2022 vintages broke sharply from previous return patterns.

Download the report to uncover why pooled and median net IRR tell very different stories, where Default, Loss and Recovery Rates are concentrated across vintages, geographies and sectors, and what the transaction data means for commitment pacing, allocation, manager selection and due diligence.

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Private credit: Spotlight on deals — the winners and losers & bounce back from the crisis

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Navigating Private Debt: A Deep Dive into Historical Risk and Returns

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