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Q3 2020 Private Markets Outlook

US Macroeconomy

After the steepest economic decline in history during Q2, the US GDP skyrocketed by +33.1% during Q3-2020 which is in stark contrast to the -31.4% contraction in the previous quarter. Much of the country was shut down in the second quarter due to COVID-19 and that forced the economy to decline; most businesses reopened in Q3 with economic activity underpinned by increased consumer spending (+41%), gains in business (+83%) and residential (+59%) investment, and improved exports. Although headline GDP growth was very strong, the US economy is not on strong footing with unemployment still at 7.9% which is more than double the pre-pandemic unemployment rate. Some half of the 22 million jobs lost during March and April remain unfilled; 12.6 million people are still without work.

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Price and Limits of the EV Trade: A Deal-Level View of Growth, Risk, and Returns in Automotive Components

DealForge analysis of 112 automotive-component investments, including 18 tire and rubber deals, reveals a 23.73% versus 0.41% median gross IRR split — while 85% of net equity value creation came from revenue growth and margin expansion.

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Private Debt at a Crossroads: Navigating Stress, Dispersion, and the Data Advantage

U.S. private credit defaults hit a record 6.0%, distressed PIK deferrals reached 6.4% of private debt volume, and 2021–2022 vintages are exposing sharp gaps in default, loss, and recovery rates. Based on CEPRES data across 1,230+ private debt funds, this report shows where stress is concentrated by vintage, geography, sector, and fund structure — helping institutional investors sharpen manager selection, pressure-test allocations, and identify risk before it is hidden in headline performance. 

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The Repricing of Private Markets: 25 Years of Data on Valuations, Leverage and Returns

LPs cannot afford to rely on outdated assumptions.

Pricing has shifted. Leverage risk is rising. Returns are under pressure. In today’s volatile market, understanding where private markets have been repriced is critical to manager selection, underwriting, and portfolio risk.

Based on 172,000+ private market deals, this whitepaper reveals how valuations, leverage, and returns have changed — including deeper analysis of North American buyouts and Software.

Download the whitepaper to see where risk is building before it shows up in your portfolio.

Client Exclusives

Private credit: Spotlight on deals — the winners and losers & bounce back from the crisis

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Navigating Private Debt: A Deep Dive into Historical Risk and Returns

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