Private Debt at a Crossroads: Navigating Stress, Dispersion, and the Data Advantage
U.S. private credit defaults hit a record 6.0%, distressed PIK deferrals reached 6.4% of private debt volume, and 2021–2022 vintages are exposing sharp gaps in default, loss, and recovery rates. Based on CEPRES data across 1,230+ private debt funds, this report shows where stress is concentrated by vintage, geography, sector, and fund structure — helping institutional investors sharpen manager selection, pressure-test allocations, and identify risk before it is hidden in headline performance.
